It’s time to assess what happened in February and how it will affect the current month. We will also analyze a more local perspective for the current week.
Although the maximum price was once again updated in February, the correction of the last week changed everything.
First of all, we need to understand that we are no longer at the stage of correcting the uptrend. The phase has changed to a balance sheet structure, and the monthly volume distribution profile confirms this.
The current range limits are $43,000-$52,500.
Since we are in accumulation, then we should act accordingly — expect a rotation from the upper border to the lower and vice versa.
We have already received a reaction from the lower level of $43,000 in the form of a volume “fill”, as well as an outbreak of inefficiency along the delta, after which the corresponding reaction appeared.
The price tends to the upper level of $51,750 – $52,500. This range is both the VAH and the volume core of one of the more local auctions.
The price behavior in this area will be very important and will determine further development in March. The most priority scenario will be the breakdown of this zone, consolidation, followed by expansion and updating of the ATH.
While it is impossible to say unequivocally that it will work out this scenario, so you should not hurry up with your decisions. Under certain conditions, we can equally rebound and go to the lower limit of the global sideways trend, or make a false breakout.
It is a false exit and a return to the range that will be the most short-term scenario since there will be an extremely increased probability of expanding the balance in the opposite direction, that is, below $43,000.
In the context of local dynamics, one can observe a narrowing of the trading range and a decrease in volatility, which portends a powerful impulse. Given that the global outlook shows a long run to $52,500, as well as the fact that we are supported by volumes from below, we expect an exit to the top.